Markets respond to surprises relative to expectations as well as to the level of a statistic. Calendars commonly show actual, forecast and previous values; the previous release may also be revised. Different components can point in different directions.
Write down the release time and timezone, the positions exposed, and whether your rules allow new entries. Spreads and execution conditions can change rapidly. A strong economic number does not always strengthen a currency because policy expectations and prior positioning also matter.
Worked example
Inflation of 3% can be a downside surprise if the forecast was 3.3%, and an upside surprise if the forecast was 2.7%. The same headline level can therefore have different context.
Check your understanding
What should you verify before comparing an actual release with the previous one?
Show explanation
The unit, period, seasonal adjustment and whether the previous value was revised.
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